Analysis and foresight of the European Union-Mercosur Association Agreement

After a negotiation that has been ongoing for more than two decades, the “agreement in principle” bet- ween the European Union and Mercosur regarding the trade pillar, announced in June 2019, has not been confirmed. Moreover, in the current context, the perspectives that are outlined in both blocks are not auspicious, for various reasons that are analyzed.

In this context, the text will analyze the following points: i) in the absence of a specific Treaty in progress of application, it informs about the negotiations of the trade pillar, its current status, the contents of the principle of agreement signed in 2019, the possibilities of closure and ratification by the two parties and the main expected impacts; ii) the potential implications of this agreement for both the European Union and Mercosur, in particular with regard to its foreseeable consequences for the strategic autonomy of both regions and for the strengthening of multilateralism at present; and iii) the expected impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the eventual contribution of this Association Agreement in the new sce- narios. The text closes with a brief overview.